Conflicts Ethiopia Is Ethiopia bracing for war? Martina Schwikowski 04/23/2026 April 23, 2026 Analysts say the war in Iran has temporarily delayed an escalation in smoldering tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea. But renewed armed conflict cannot be ruled out. https://p.dw.com/p/5CfRB Ethiopia’s civil war ended in 2022, but tensions remain between the central government, Tigrayan regional forces and neighboring Eritrea Image: Minasse Wondimu Hailu/AA/picture alliance Advertisement The political situation in the Horn of Africa continues to be dominated by tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea . Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has left little doubt: During a television appearance earlier this week, he emphasized that it is “not feasible at any time” to continue viewing Ethiopia as a landlocked country. The country lost its access to the Red Sea when Eritrea gained independence in 1993 after decades of war. Initially, an agreement allowed Ethiopia to import goods duty-free through the Eritrean port of Assab. But a renewed border conflict in the late 1990s ended this arrangement. Today, a large portion of Ethiopia’s trade passes through Djibouti — a costly undertaking for the landlocked nation. Resistance to Ethiopian expansion Abiy Ahmed wants to reduce this dependence, according to political analyst Abdurahman Sayed. “The reason he is pushing for this right now is not because there is no access to the Red Sea or to ports near Ethiopia,” he told DW. While access is already possible via neighboring Djibouti and Somalia, Abiy Ahmed wants direct, Ethiopian control, which coastal states are resisting, Sayed said. The 2018 peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea would have offered a good opportunity. On this basis, Sayed said, Ethiopia could have secured easy access to the sea with some guarantees for sustainability and security. The peace efforts earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. Now, however, signs point once again toward confrontation with the neighboring country. Sayed suspects Ethiopia’s push for access to the sea “is heavily driven by external interests outside the Horn of Africa region, and that the Ethiopian government is merely implementing these interests as part of its own agenda. Otherwise, access would have been secured back then.” Ethiopia’s partners under pressure Sayed was referring to Ethiopia’s geostrategic partners, primarily the United Arab Emirates. But the UAE is currently under pressure, said Sayed. “Due to the conflicts in the Persian Gulf , the UAE will sooner or later be forced to reduce their presence and involvement in the Horn of Africa to focus on the problems in their own country.” This means Ethiopia can expect less support in the event of a potential war against Eritrea. The United Arab Emirates is considered an ally of Ethiopia, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visiting Abu Dhabi in March Image: Office of the Prime Minister-Ethiopia Prime Minister Abiy has been demanding separate access to a seaport for Ethiopia since 2023. His rhetoric on the matter has intensified over the years, said Guido Lanfranchi, a researcher at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael. Earlier this year, several news agencies reported Ethiopian government soldiers and fighters from Tigray were stationed along the region’s 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) border with Eritrea. Yet the situation has not broken out into war so far. Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have been escalating for over a year and have remained at a fairly high level, said Lanfranchi. “Now it seems as though the danger has passed and war has been averted — which is due, among other things, to problems such as fuel shortages in the region linked to the crisis in Iran ,” he told DW. Threat of civil war in Ethiopia lingers “However, this does not mean that the international community should reduce its focus on this crisis, as the underlying causes of the rivalry between the two parties still exist,” said Lanfranchi. Acc